The day after war; Who will rule over Gaza?

The second plan was earmarked to the European Union (EU) and supported the replacement of the Palestinian Authority (PA) instead of Hamas while keeping the borders. This plan was supported by Paris and Riyadh. Finally, the plan of Americans is visible, according to which, the Palestinian Authority (PA) was supposed to replace Hamas and take control of administrative and security affairs with the cooperation of international forces along with a part of the civil forces of Gaza. Despite some speculations about the future of Gaza, so far American sources claim that the plan of the Biden government currently has a better chance of being implemented in Gaza.

On January 14, 2025, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken expressed his views on the current developments in the West Asian region at the Atlantic Council, particularly, the Gaza war and the future of the populated Palestinian strip. He claimed that the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been reformed and the current affairs will be run by the selected people in the Gaza Strip in cooperation with international forces such as providing public needs, rebuilding the health network, education, water, etc. Also, forces of the Palestinian Authority (PA) are supposed to take control of the security affairs in this area in cooperation with the Israeli military and international forces.

In his speech, Blinken claimed that the US and Israel would no longer allow Hamas to rule over the affairs of the Palestinian Authority after the Al-Aqsa Storm Operation.

Before the failure of the plan to create a temporary dock to send humanitarian aid to Gaza, Mohammad Dahlan, a former head of the Palestinian Authority's Preventive Security in Gaza and a senior member of Fatah opposed to Mahmoud Abbas, was one of the main options for the administration of Gaza but today, it seems that he has the less chance in this respect. This security figure close to the Palestinian Authority, UAE, and Egypt was blacklisted in Turkey for some time due to his close relations with the conservative Sunni bloc and also Mossad. During the last few months, the reportage of media close to the UAE and Western allies has strengthened the rumor that Washington-London may agree to hand over the administration of Gaza to this security figure in a joint plan.

Dahlan in an interview with the Economist refused to accept the proposal of the Gaza administration and said that the future government of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip should be controlled by a technocrat government, a government that people from Hamas and Fatah are also present. According to the New York Times, in this plan, after the technocrat government takes over Gaza, the Saudi-Emirati security forces will monitor the process of rebuilding the enclave.

Salam Fayyad, an economics graduate from the University of Texas, is another candidate to run Gaza. This figure, supported by Paris, Washington, and Tel Aviv, was previously the former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority. He is one of the few Palestinian leaders who, after Operation Storm Al-Aqsa, condemned Hamas' actions and expressed sympathy for the Zionists! Recently, Israel National Radio also mentioned this technocrat as the main candidate to run Gaza.

The other option is Hossein al-Sheikh, who is currently the Secretary General of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) Executive Committee. He, who was one of the founding members of the political committees of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip after the Oslo Peace Treaty (1993), now with the support of Riyadh, hopes to take the lead from other competitors and take over the administration of Gaza. Like other figures in the Palestinian Authority (PA), while criticizing the October 7 operation, he believes in cooperating with the Zionist regime to reduce the pain and suffering of the Palestinian nation! According to an Al Jazeera report, Hamas identified him as a person affiliated with Israel.

Who is “Nelson Mandela” of Palestine?

Among the proposed candidates, one person’s name is heard more than other options, and he is Marwan Barghouti, a Palestinian political leader convicted and imprisoned for his role in deadly attacks against Israel. According to some reliable news sources, apparently, Hamas insisted on Barghouti’s name among the prisoners released from the prison of the Zionist regime. Rumors about Barghouti’s release and placement as the head of the Palestinian Authority or Gaza intensified when, in early February, the Hamas movement demanded the release of all prisoners in Palestinian prisons, especially security convicts, in the prisoner exchange negotiations with Israel in exchange for the release of Zionist prisoners. Marwan Barghouti was one of the prominent leaders of the first and second Palestinian intifadas, who was sentenced to life imprisonment in 2004.

At that time, Barghouti emphasized continuing armed resistance against the Zionists. He was one of the key figures in the process of signing the agreement between the members of Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Palestine, and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, in which, he called for the formation of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders.

During the survey conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, 90% of the participants demanded the resignation of Mahmoud Abbas from the position of the head of the Palestinian Authority. Barghouti was chosen as the most popular Palestinian leader. Perhaps for this reason, Netanyahu and the right-wing members of his cabinet are not interested in his release. Some analysts believe that Tel Aviv wants to separate the West Bank and the Gaza Strip at any cost and is not interested in the unification of these two regions under the shadow of a popular person like Marwan Barghouti.

Conclusion

Assuming the Palestinian Authority (PA)’s return to the Gaza Strip, it seems that the scenario of its expulsion from this strip is not far from expected. In 2004, when the Israeli military withdrew from the Palestinian territories and handed over control of its affairs to the Palestinian Authority (PA), the Hamas movement and Islamic Jihad needed only 3 years to win the elections through a democratic process and control the affairs. According to polls conducted among the people of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Hamas group and its leaders are very popular among the Palestinian people.

Based on this, it seems that the Zionist regime is faced with two bad options when dealing with the future of Gaza: Firstly, accepting the popularity and role of Hamas in the future of the administration of Gaza, and secondly, returning to this strip and giving in to severe human-financial damages that can exacerbate the gap between the army and the cabinet of the Zionist regime. Considering the rapid reconstruction of the military wing of Hamas in the middle of the war with the Zionist regime, it seems that this process will be followed more quickly during the ceasefire period and the Zionist army will officially face the new military force. The developments in the coming weeks and months will show which of the actors will finally take over the administration of affairs in the war-torn Gaza Strip.